Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.29 – 118.96

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.8 ±12.1

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX -8.25Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 27.49Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 9.05Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.7 ±10.5

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 92.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 7.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 18.73Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5511, 10107, 3680

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5511, 10107, 3680

Auto

11.7 59%

Teleop

4.6 23%

Endgame

3.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 8757, 5727

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3506, 8757, 5727

Auto

29.9 25%

Teleop

62.4 52%

Endgame

26.7 22%

Strengths

· 3506 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.3pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.7
Score range: 13–134
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 72 vs event baseline 84.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.8Season APEX299.7

11.7Auto29.9

4.6Teleop62.4

3.7Endgame26.7

34Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	22
teleop	5	17
endgame	3	1
foul	15	0
total	32	40

Result

Final score

32 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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