Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.13 – 24.09

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±11.6

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 27.5Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX -1.45Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 41.08Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 105.4 ±11.6

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX -2.87Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 7.48Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 19.48Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 900, 5511, 4935

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 900, 5511, 4935

Auto

13.6 22%

Teleop

34.6 55%

Endgame

14.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3680, 9198, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3680, 9198, 9005

Auto

7.0 32%

Teleop

5.2 23%

Endgame

10.0 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.1pts

Blue projected score24.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43
Score range: 11–80
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 70.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.1Season APEX105.4

13.6Auto7

34.6Teleop5.2

14.2Endgame10

17Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	29	7
endgame	18	3
foul	0	0
total	64	23

Result

Final score

64 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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