Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.5 – 127.15

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±11

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 16.03Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 10.69Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 47.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±10.4

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 80.72Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 39.72Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 6.71Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10107, 9005, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10107, 9005, 4534

Auto

14.1 20%

Teleop

43.6 62%

Endgame

13.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6500, 4935, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6500, 4935, 8746

Auto

25.9 20%

Teleop

77.7 60%

Endgame

26.7 20%

Strengths

· 6500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.5pts

Blue projected score127.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.6
Score range: 63–139
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 67.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX252.4

14.1Auto25.9

43.6Teleop77.7

13.1Endgame26.7

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	27
teleop	70	101
endgame	68	27
foul	15	0
total	178	155

Result

Final score

178 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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