Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

20.8 – 16.95

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 110.3 ±12.1

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX -7.84Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 2.83Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 25.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107.9 ±12.2

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 1.92Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX -8.3Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 23.33Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3680, 9762, 900

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3680, 9762, 900

Auto

10.0 74%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

3.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5511, 6932, 1225

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5511, 6932, 1225

Auto

8.8 68%

Teleop

-2.1 0%

Endgame

6.3 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.8pts

Blue projected score16.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.9
Score range: 5–33
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 68.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

110.3Season APEX107.9

10Auto8.8

0Teleop-2.1

3.6Endgame6.3

63Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	10
teleop	37	4
endgame	20	0
foul	0	0
total	66	14

Result

Final score

66 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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