Qualification · Qualification 44
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
90.07 – 47.54
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
52 – 80
Prediction missed · off by 35.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±11.1
Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 20.09Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 60.35Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 9.63Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 5.12Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 17.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 25.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9298, 2724, 10412
73
/ 100 compatProjected
90.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9298, 2724, 10412
Auto
16.0 19%
Teleop
49.8 60%
Endgame
17.5 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 19%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8757, 9150, 6894
47
/ 100 compatProjected
47.5 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 8757, 9150, 6894
Auto
17.1 37%
Teleop
19.2 42%
Endgame
9.9 21%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 19%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.9
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score90.1pts
Blue projected score47.5pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample142alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 19%, blue 12%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 42.5
- Score range
- 36–102
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
282.3Season APEX172.7
16Auto17.1
49.8Teleop19.2
17.5Endgame9.9
19Consistency64
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 21 |
| teleop | 19 | 26 |
| endgame | 5 | 23 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 52 | 80 |
Result
Final score
52 – 80
Prediction missed · off by 35.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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