Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.46 – 59.92

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±11.7

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 30.9Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 92.48Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 10.08Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±11

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 25.91Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 9.48Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 24.53Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10704, 3506, 9605

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10704, 3506, 9605

Auto

18.3 14%

Teleop

80.2 60%

Endgame

35.3 26%

Strengths

· 3506 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11377, 9198, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11377, 9198, 8727

Auto

14.1 23%

Teleop

28.0 46%

Endgame

19.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.5pts

Blue projected score59.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.5
Score range: 48–145
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 67.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.2Season APEX206.1

18.3Auto14.1

80.2Teleop28

35.3Endgame19.1

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	77	20
endgame	35	21
foul	0	0
total	137	51

Result

Final score

137 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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