Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.91 – 90

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196 ±11

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 44.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 6.92Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 33.08Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±10.5

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 2.1Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 27.24Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 60.66Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4534, 10412, 4935

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4534, 10412, 4935

Auto

13.4 15%

Teleop

55.6 64%

Endgame

18.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5511, 6894, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5511, 6894, 2724

Auto

19.5 22%

Teleop

48.0 55%

Endgame

19.8 23%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score90pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.1
Score range: 73–102
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 65.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196Season APEX319.7

13.4Auto19.5

55.6Teleop48

18.5Endgame19.8

0Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	27
teleop	70	41
endgame	37	11
foul	0	10
total	123	89

Result

Final score

123 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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