Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.56 – 61.25

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.9 ±11

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 27.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 83.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 10.76Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±11

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 30.97Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 25.65Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 4.63Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11377, 4534, 10412

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11377, 4534, 10412

Auto

23.3 20%

Teleop

62.0 54%

Endgame

29.0 25%

Strengths

· 4534 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1225, 10704, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1225, 10704, 9005

Auto

8.0 13%

Teleop

30.2 51%

Endgame

21.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.6pts

Blue projected score61.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.3
Score range: 46–137
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 84.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.9Season APEX161.9

23.3Auto8

62Teleop30.2

29Endgame21.6

9Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	4
teleop	35	30
endgame	27	12
foul	0	0
total	79	46

Result

Final score

79 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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