Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.14 – 143.49

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319 ±11.7

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 60.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 13.18Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 11.97Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±9.8

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 38.93Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 13.08Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 91.48Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2724, 9198, 9605

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2724, 9198, 9605

Auto

13.0 15%

Teleop

63.6 73%

Endgame

10.5 12%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4534, 9150, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4534, 9150, 3506

Auto

31.1 22%

Teleop

77.2 53%

Endgame

36.0 25%

Strengths

· 3506 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.1pts

Blue projected score143.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.4
Score range: 74–155
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 64.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319Season APEX368.5

13Auto31.1

63.6Teleop77.2

10.5Endgame36

21Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	32
teleop	27	119
endgame	40	37
foul	5	0
total	84	188

Result

Final score

84 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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