Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

27.19 – 9.58

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

44 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±11.7

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX -8.91Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 7.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 28.26Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.3 ±11

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 1.06Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -0.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 8.85Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6932, 10248, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6932, 10248, 8727

Auto

6.2 23%

Teleop

8.5 32%

Endgame

11.8 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5511, 8757, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5511, 8757, 9005

Auto

15.6 100%

Teleop

-8.3 0%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score27.2pts

Blue projected score9.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: -2–39
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 65.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.1Season APEX111.3

6.2Auto15.6

8.5Teleop-8.3

11.8Endgame-2.2

24Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	11	3
endgame	21	6
foul	0	5
total	44	27

Result

Final score

44 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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