Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.55 – 35.15

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.9 ±11

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 21.69Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 37.76Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 24.1Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±10.4

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 4.11Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 12.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 18.18Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1225, 4935, 10107

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1225, 4935, 10107

Auto

13.0 17%

Teleop

41.5 53%

Endgame

23.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8746, 3196, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8746, 3196, 2640

Auto

7.5 21%

Teleop

23.7 65%

Endgame

5.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.6pts

Blue projected score35.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.4
Score range: 23–96
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 65.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.9Season APEX188.5

13Auto7.5

41.5Teleop23.7

23.3Endgame5.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	21	23
endgame	18	5
foul	0	0
total	53	45

Result

Final score

53 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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