Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.91 – 26.56

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.2 ±10.5

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 21.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 83.65Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 14.55Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.4 ±12.2

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 23.75Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 10.78Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX -7.97Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 3506, 9298

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6894, 3506, 9298

Auto

22.7 19%

Teleop

69.1 58%

Endgame

28.3 24%

Strengths

· 3506 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11377, 9605, 3680

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11377, 9605, 3680

Auto

12.2 42%

Teleop

14.5 50%

Endgame

2.3 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.9pts

Blue projected score26.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.4
Score range: 15–132
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 64.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.2Season APEX121.4

22.7Auto12.2

69.1Teleop14.5

28.3Endgame2.3

35Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	17
teleop	98	18
endgame	60	11
foul	5	0
total	188	46

Result

Final score

188 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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