Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.26 – 101.88

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.9 ±11.7

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 24.07Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 29.77Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 4.42Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367 ±10.5

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 22.97Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 19.89Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 59.02Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8727, 4935, 9605

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8727, 4935, 9605

Auto

1.2 2%

Teleop

43.2 71%

Endgame

16.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10107, 1225, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10107, 1225, 2724

Auto

17.3 18%

Teleop

59.9 63%

Endgame

18.4 19%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.3pts

Blue projected score101.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.6
Score range: 47–113
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 60.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.9Season APEX367

1.2Auto17.3

43.2Teleop59.9

16.3Endgame18.4

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	28
teleop	63	65
endgame	39	25
foul	0	15
total	121	133

Result

Final score

121 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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