Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.82 – 23.73

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.5 ±11.7

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 33.88Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 50.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 6.16Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.4 ±11.6

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 17.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 24.78Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX -18.1Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2640, 4534, 6932

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2640, 4534, 6932

Auto

12.8 14%

Teleop

58.0 62%

Endgame

22.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6894, 10704, 3680

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6894, 10704, 3680

Auto

7.6 29%

Teleop

14.2 55%

Endgame

4.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.8pts

Blue projected score23.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.1
Score range: 13–102
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 60.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.5Season APEX132.4

12.8Auto7.6

58Teleop14.2

22.6Endgame4

48Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	10
teleop	21	45
endgame	4	22
foul	0	0
total	29	77

Result

Final score

29 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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