Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.91 – 69.03

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.1 ±11.6

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 2.4Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 12.42Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 30.09Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±11.6

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 2.47Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 10.58Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 55.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10412, 900, 1225

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10412, 900, 1225

Auto

13.0 32%

Teleop

12.1 30%

Endgame

15.4 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9762, 5511, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9762, 5511, 4534

Auto

10.8 17%

Teleop

32.5 51%

Endgame

21.0 33%

Strengths

· 4534 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.9pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.1
Score range: 35–79
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 55.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.1Season APEX139.5

13Auto10.8

12.1Teleop32.5

15.4Endgame21

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	23
teleop	22	21
endgame	13	16
foul	5	0
total	44	60

Result

Final score

44 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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