Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.55 – 54.5

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

72 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.5 ±10.4

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 16.59Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 13.76Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 16.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.9 ±11.6

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 11.45Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 9.97Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 33.08Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10248, 11377, 6894

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10248, 11377, 6894

Auto

8.4 17%

Teleop

25.4 52%

Endgame

14.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9198, 9150, 10107

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9198, 9150, 10107

Auto

9.1 19%

Teleop

26.3 54%

Endgame

13.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.6pts

Blue projected score54.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8
Score range: 37–65
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 55.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.5Season APEX155.9

8.4Auto9.1

25.4Teleop26.3

14.8Endgame13.4

38Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	10
teleop	32	16
endgame	13	4
foul	0	0
total	72	30

Result

Final score

72 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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