Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.13 – 48.31

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 7

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.4 ±11

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 98.86Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 35.52Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX -8.25Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 96.7 ±12.2

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 12.43Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 19.4Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 16.48Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6500, 6894, 5511

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6500, 6894, 5511

Auto

22.7 19%

Teleop

70.0 58%

Endgame

27.2 23%

Strengths

· 6500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9605, 9298, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9605, 9298, 10248

Auto

9.0 22%

Teleop

21.9 53%

Endgame

10.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.1pts

Blue projected score48.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.8
Score range: 33–141
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 84.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.4Season APEX96.7

22.7Auto9

70Teleop21.9

27.2Endgame10.6

44Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	1
teleop	65	6
endgame	17	0
foul	0	0
total	98	7

Result

Final score

98 – 7

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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