Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.66 – 35.91

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.9 ±11.1

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 11.94Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 30.41Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 60.31Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154 ±10.4

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 11.98Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 6.76Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 17.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 900, 10107, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 900, 10107, 3506

Auto

26.3 27%

Teleop

52.3 53%

Endgame

19.6 20%

Strengths

· 3506 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9005, 3196, 6894

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9005, 3196, 6894

Auto

11.5 28%

Teleop

28.1 69%

Endgame

1.1 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.7pts

Blue projected score35.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.8
Score range: 27–112
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 52.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.9Season APEX154

26.3Auto11.5

52.3Teleop28.1

19.6Endgame1.1

7Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	8
teleop	51	7
endgame	33	7
foul	5	0
total	112	22

Result

Final score

112 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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