Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.98 – 37.09

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.4 ±10.5

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX -3.53Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 60.66Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 3.85Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.5 ±11.6

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 15.9Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 7.4Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 13.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9762, 2724, 8746

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9762, 2724, 8746

Auto

0.8 1%

Teleop

42.8 73%

Endgame

15.2 26%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10704, 5511, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10704, 5511, 11377

Auto

9.7 26%

Teleop

20.2 54%

Endgame

7.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score37.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.9
Score range: 28–70
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 51.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.4Season APEX127.5

0.8Auto9.7

42.8Teleop20.2

15.2Endgame7.5

141Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	13
teleop	42	8
endgame	9	10
foul	0	0
total	77	31

Result

Final score

77 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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