Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

31.54 – 26.1

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.4 ±12.2

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 4.72Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX -9.53Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 36.35Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.3 ±11

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 34.07Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 2.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -10.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9198, 9605, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9198, 9605, 4534

Auto

4.4 15%

Teleop

18.2 60%

Endgame

7.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2640, 9298, 8757

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2640, 9298, 8757

Auto

7.1 30%

Teleop

12.1 50%

Endgame

4.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.5pts

Blue projected score26.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 16–42
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 53.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.4Season APEX160.3

4.4Auto7.1

18.2Teleop12.1

7.7Endgame4.8

144Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	11
teleop	61	24
endgame	16	9
foul	0	5
total	83	49

Result

Final score

83 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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