Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.2 – 30.28

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

39 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.9 ±10.4

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 25.04Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 42.18Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 13.98Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.2 ±11.6

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 8.09Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 18.33Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 3.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 2640, 8757

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6894, 2640, 8757

Auto

15.9 20%

Teleop

51.3 63%

Endgame

13.8 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9198, 5511, 3196

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9198, 5511, 3196

Auto

6.4 26%

Teleop

15.4 62%

Endgame

2.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.2pts

Blue projected score30.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.9
Score range: 20–91
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 52 vs event baseline 54.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.9Season APEX123.2

15.9Auto6.4

51.3Teleop15.4

13.8Endgame2.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	9
teleop	17	4
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	39	13

Result

Final score

39 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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