Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.69 – 2.73

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±9.8

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 35.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 23.68Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 39.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.5 ±13.3

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX -14.73Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 12.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 4.71Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2724, 8727, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2724, 8727, 4534

Auto

9.1 9%

Teleop

62.9 64%

Endgame

26.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9605, 900, 6932

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9605, 900, 6932

Auto

0.1 2%

Teleop

2.4 59%

Endgame

1.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score2.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96
Score range: -6–108
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 52.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.8Season APEX115.5

9.1Auto0.1

62.9Teleop2.4

26.7Endgame1.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	5
teleop	81	10
endgame	26	2
foul	0	0
total	117	17

Result

Final score

117 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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