Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.82 – 161.83

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.1 ±9.8

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 91.15Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 21.24Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 82.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.8 ±10.5

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 60.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 98.41Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 3.35Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3506, 8746, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3506, 8746, 4534

Auto

32.4 17%

Teleop

112.6 58%

Endgame

49.2 25%

Strengths

· 3506 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2724, 6500, 9762

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2724, 6500, 9762

Auto

27.2 17%

Teleop

97.0 62%

Endgame

31.9 20%

Strengths

· 6500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.8pts

Blue projected score161.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33
Score range: 147–210
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.1Season APEX383.8

32.4Auto27.2

112.6Teleop97

49.2Endgame31.9

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	18
teleop	142	99
endgame	49	55
foul	5	0
total	230	172

Result

Final score

230 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Match videos

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