Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.9 – 80.24

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.6 ±9.3

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 57.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 1.61Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 73.76Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±9.8

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 16.89Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 30.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 33.27Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 7763, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 7763, 8727

Auto

18.2 14%

Teleop

79.5 61%

Endgame

33.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 6888, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11417, 6888, 6639

Auto

13.8 17%

Teleop

44.5 55%

Endgame

22.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.9pts

Blue projected score80.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.7
Score range: 62–151
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 98.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.6Season APEX384.5

18.2Auto13.8

79.5Teleop44.5

33.4Endgame22.3

26Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	127	57
endgame	72	19
foul	0	0
total	214	93

Result

Final score

214 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Match videos

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