Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.57 – 97.98

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±12.2

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 29.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 20.79Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 5.07Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.1 ±11

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 13.39Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 46.5Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 38.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2682, 3680, 6932

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2682, 3680, 6932

Auto

16.8 32%

Teleop

22.3 43%

Endgame

13.2 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6908, 7918, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

98 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6908, 7918, 3229

Auto

20.3 21%

Teleop

54.1 57%

Endgame

21.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.6pts

Blue projected score98pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 39–115
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 97.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.1Season APEX173.1

16.8Auto20.3

22.3Teleop54.1

13.2Endgame21

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	22
teleop	15	35
endgame	10	10
foul	0	20
total	45	87

Result

Final score

45 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Match videos

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