Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.47 – 88.66

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 142.5 ±12.1

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 30.17Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 32.94Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 24.36Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.5 ±11

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 23.79Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 48.59Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 16.28Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5727, 10107, 10704

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5727, 10107, 10704

Auto

15.7 19%

Teleop

50.1 60%

Endgame

18.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9150, 1225, 9762

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9150, 1225, 9762

Auto

19.3 22%

Teleop

43.2 49%

Endgame

25.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.5pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.2
Score range: 69–107
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 97.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

142.5Season APEX154.5

15.7Auto19.3

50.1Teleop43.2

18.2Endgame25.8

9Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	20	40
endgame	17	20
foul	0	10
total	56	91

Result

Final score

56 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Match videos

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