Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.82 – 72.16

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.1 ±11

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 37.2Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 44.8Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 11.82Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±9.8

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 14.23Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 27.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 30.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3229, 7918, 6908

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3229, 7918, 6908

Auto

19.9 22%

Teleop

49.3 54%

Endgame

22.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 6888, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11417, 6888, 6639

Auto

14.4 20%

Teleop

39.6 55%

Endgame

17.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.8pts

Blue projected score72.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.7
Score range: 55–111
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 97.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.1Season APEX384.5

19.9Auto14.4

49.3Teleop39.6

22.5Endgame17.7

11Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	72	65
endgame	15	38
foul	5	0
total	114	117

Result

Final score

114 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 pts

Match videos

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