Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.39 – 58.3

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.6 ±9.3

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 55.41Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX -0.81Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 71.79Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±12.2

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 6.13Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 30.39Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 21.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 7763, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 7763, 8727

Auto

18.1 15%

Teleop

73.3 59%

Endgame

32.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6932, 2682, 3680

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6932, 2682, 3680

Auto

16.2 30%

Teleop

24.7 45%

Endgame

13.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.4pts

Blue projected score58.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.1
Score range: 41–143
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 97.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.6Season APEX188.1

18.1Auto16.2

73.3Teleop24.7

32.1Endgame13.4

51Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	105	13
endgame	38	13
foul	0	0
total	164	46

Result

Final score

164 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Match videos

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