Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.48 – 87.48

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 63 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440 ±9.3

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 9.29Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 140.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 92Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.5 ±12.1

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 29.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 34.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 23.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10077, 2724, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 2724, 1533

Auto

51.7 21%

Teleop

130.5 54%

Endgame

60.0 25%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5727, 10107, 10704

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5727, 10107, 10704

Auto

16.2 19%

Teleop

52.5 61%

Endgame

17.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.5pts

Blue projected score87.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154
Score range: 70–258
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 96.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440Season APEX142.5

51.7Auto16.2

130.5Teleop52.5

60Endgame17.1

17Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	15
teleop	39	42
endgame	20	22
foul	0	10
total	117	89

Result

Final score

117 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 63 pts

Match videos

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