Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.73 – 87.23

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±9.8

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 16.44Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 30.51Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 33.78Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.5 ±11

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 23.83Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 47.68Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 15.72Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11417, 6888, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11417, 6888, 6639

Auto

14.4 18%

Teleop

45.4 56%

Endgame

21.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9150, 1225, 9762

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9150, 1225, 9762

Auto

19.5 23%

Teleop

41.5 49%

Endgame

24.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.7pts

Blue projected score87.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.5
Score range: 63–105
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.5Season APEX154.5

14.4Auto19.5

45.4Teleop41.5

21.1Endgame24.5

48Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	21
teleop	27	55
endgame	25	28
foul	10	0
total	74	104

Result

Final score

74 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Match videos

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