Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.77 – 39.11

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.9 ±9.9

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 35.89Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 3.55Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 41.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.8 ±11.7

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 4.41Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX -1.19Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 35.89Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 10107, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 10107, 2724

Auto

28.2 35%

Teleop

32.3 40%

Endgame

19.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3196, 10583, 7918

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3196, 10583, 7918

Auto

9.7 25%

Teleop

10.2 26%

Endgame

19.3 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.8pts

Blue projected score39.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 25–95
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 75.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.9Season APEX158.8

28.2Auto9.7

32.3Teleop10.2

19.9Endgame19.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	20
teleop	99	21
endgame	46	13
foul	0	0
total	193	54

Result

Final score

193 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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