Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.76 – 83.71

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.2 ±11

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 19.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 10.57Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 11.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±11

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 38Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 11.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 34.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9150, 10077, 5727

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9150, 10077, 5727

Auto

13.3 33%

Teleop

11.2 28%

Endgame

16.2 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3229, 3680, 11417

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3229, 3680, 11417

Auto

16.0 19%

Teleop

46.0 56%

Endgame

20.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.8pts

Blue projected score83.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.9
Score range: 27–98
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 76.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.2Season APEX254.2

13.3Auto16

11.2Teleop46

16.2Endgame20.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	18
teleop	37	24
endgame	21	17
foul	0	0
total	73	59

Result

Final score

73 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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