Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.21 – 86.35

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.8 ±11.1

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 91.94Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 10.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 24.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±10.5

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 5.63Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 49.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 31.32Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1533, 10304, 10704

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1533, 10304, 10704

Auto

20.6 16%

Teleop

75.6 59%

Endgame

32.0 25%

Strengths

· 1533 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6908, 7890, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6908, 7890, 3229

Auto

22.9 27%

Teleop

32.5 38%

Endgame

29.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score86.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.9
Score range: 69–144
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 95.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.8Season APEX267.8

20.6Auto22.9

75.6Teleop32.5

32Endgame29.2

2Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	17
teleop	63	101
endgame	43	50
foul	0	0
total	140	168

Result

Final score

140 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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