Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.23 – 83.26

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±11.2

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 27.08Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 135.93Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 39.22Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.6 ±11.6

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 48.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 20.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 13.78Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9605, 2724, 7918

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9605, 2724, 7918

Auto

40.9 21%

Teleop

110.5 57%

Endgame

43.2 22%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4828, 9298, 9762

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4828, 9298, 9762

Auto

31.0 40%

Teleop

33.3 43%

Endgame

13.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.2pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119
Score range: 66–219
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 93.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360Season APEX122.6

40.9Auto31

110.5Teleop33.3

43.2Endgame13.1

23Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	31
teleop	146	42
endgame	54	16
foul	5	0
total	267	89

Result

Final score

267 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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