Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.24 – 54.63

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±11.7

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 6.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 13.33Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 5.22Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.6 ±12.2

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 23.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 18.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 12.17Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10077, 11417, 10583

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 11417, 10583

Auto

8.5 30%

Teleop

16.5 58%

Endgame

3.3 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6888, 3680, 5518

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6888, 3680, 5518

Auto

15.3 26%

Teleop

18.0 31%

Endgame

25.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.2pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.4
Score range: 8–72
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 93.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.7Season APEX115.6

8.5Auto15.3

16.5Teleop18

3.3Endgame25.1

29Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	34	57
endgame	23	9
foul	5	15
total	73	97

Result

Final score

73 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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