Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.93 – 156.81

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.1 ±9.9

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 47.27Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 14.64Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 89.02Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±10.4

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 22.14Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 77Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 57.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 3680, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 3680, 1533

Auto

33.9 23%

Teleop

76.0 50%

Endgame

40.7 27%

Strengths

· 1533 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 8727, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11417, 8727, 4828

Auto

22.1 15%

Teleop

98.6 65%

Endgame

30.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.9pts

Blue projected score156.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.9
Score range: 134–174
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 94.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.1Season APEX354.9

33.9Auto22.1

76Teleop98.6

40.7Endgame30.6

18Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	111	36
endgame	57	2
foul	0	0
total	186	59

Result

Final score

186 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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