Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.27 – 60.03

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.7 ±9.8

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 133.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 28.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 17.04Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.7 ±11.2

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 44.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 10.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 5.35Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2724, 2682, 3196

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2724, 2682, 3196

Auto

40.8 24%

Teleop

86.8 50%

Endgame

45.9 26%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7918, 6932, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 6932, 7763

Auto

15.4 28%

Teleop

24.8 45%

Endgame

14.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.3pts

Blue projected score60pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.2
Score range: 43–196
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 93.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.7Season APEX214.7

40.8Auto15.4

86.8Teleop24.8

45.9Endgame14.9

9Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	12
teleop	123	5
endgame	47	0
foul	0	0
total	227	17

Result

Final score

227 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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