Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.49 – 68.23

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.5 ±13.9

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 28.9Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 6.78Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 12.81Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.7 ±11.6

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 30.22Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 28.96Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 9.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9605, 10583, 5518

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9605, 10583, 5518

Auto

9.0 21%

Teleop

20.4 48%

Endgame

12.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5727, 3229, 10304

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5727, 3229, 10304

Auto

14.7 21%

Teleop

31.8 46%

Endgame

23.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.5pts

Blue projected score68.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.7
Score range: 31–85
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 94.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.5Season APEX145.7

9Auto14.7

20.4Teleop31.8

12.8Endgame23.3

30Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	22	45
endgame	8	35
foul	0	10
total	46	105

Result

Final score

46 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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