Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.28 – 64.1

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

40 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±11

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 53.06Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 12.48Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 26.74Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119.7 ±11.6

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 1.84Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 30.13Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 32.13Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4828, 10304, 3196

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4828, 10304, 3196

Auto

21.1 23%

Teleop

42.5 46%

Endgame

28.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9298, 10107, 6888

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9298, 10107, 6888

Auto

19.6 30%

Teleop

34.3 53%

Endgame

10.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.3pts

Blue projected score64.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.2
Score range: 45–111
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 77 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.8Season APEX119.7

21.1Auto19.6

42.5Teleop34.3

28.7Endgame10.8

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	25
teleop	0	12
endgame	32	0
foul	0	0
total	40	37

Result

Final score

40 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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