Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.45 – 77.73

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.1 ±11

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 27.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 20.98Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 18.6Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250 ±9.8

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 6.95Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 61.88Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 8.9Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2682, 11417, 9298

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2682, 11417, 9298

Auto

19.4 31%

Teleop

37.1 59%

Endgame

6.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10077, 4828, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 4828, 7763

Auto

17.5 24%

Teleop

39.7 55%

Endgame

15.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score77.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 50–95
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 95.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.1Season APEX250

19.4Auto17.5

37.1Teleop39.7

6.3Endgame15.2

12Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	18
teleop	33	4
endgame	21	18
foul	5	0
total	78	40

Result

Final score

78 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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