Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.68 – 89.62

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±9.8

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 9.45Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 7.96Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 33.27Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±11

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 18.01Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 43.61Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6888, 7763, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6888, 7763, 11377

Auto

23.3 46%

Teleop

7.3 14%

Endgame

20.3 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3229, 10704, 7918

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3229, 10704, 7918

Auto

18.5 20%

Teleop

49.0 54%

Endgame

22.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.7pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.9
Score range: 34–107
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 95.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.7Season APEX193.2

23.3Auto18.5

7.3Teleop49

20.3Endgame22.8

99Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	40	88
endgame	28	34
foul	0	5
total	84	150

Result

Final score

84 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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