Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.37 – 54.25

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 104.2 ±12.7

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -5.38Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 25.3Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 8.45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±10.5

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 31.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 24.43Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -1.6Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10304, 9605, 3680

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 9605, 3680

Auto

4.5 22%

Teleop

6.1 30%

Endgame

9.5 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6639, 3196, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6639, 3196, 9607

Auto

14.6 27%

Teleop

26.9 50%

Endgame

11.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.4pts

Blue projected score54.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.9
Score range: 11–71
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 94.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

104.2Season APEX254

4.5Auto14.6

6.1Teleop26.9

9.5Endgame11.8

69Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	30	20
endgame	12	6
foul	0	0
total	55	41

Result

Final score

55 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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