Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.25 – 44.07

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.2 ±9.3

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 72.88Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 43.02Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 32.35Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.8 ±12.8

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 4.93Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 31.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 7.57Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1533, 3229, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1533, 3229, 6639

Auto

28.8 20%

Teleop

79.3 55%

Endgame

35.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6932, 9605, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6932, 9605, 10077

Auto

16.3 44%

Teleop

11.8 32%

Endgame

8.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.3pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.2
Score range: 25–167
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.2Season APEX90.8

28.8Auto16.3

79.3Teleop11.8

35.1Endgame8.9

36Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	16
teleop	78	17
endgame	30	4
foul	0	0
total	133	37

Result

Final score

133 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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