Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.18 – 55.07

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±11.7

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 9.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 35.31Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 18Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.9 ±10.5

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 27.75Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 16.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 10.61Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6932, 1225, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6932, 1225, 3229

Auto

17.3 26%

Teleop

31.5 47%

Endgame

17.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 10704, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11417, 10704, 7763

Auto

9.7 19%

Teleop

36.1 70%

Endgame

5.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.2pts

Blue projected score55.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.1
Score range: 38–80
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 95.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.5Season APEX336.9

17.3Auto9.7

31.5Teleop36.1

17.9Endgame5.6

28Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	13
teleop	69	27
endgame	21	9
foul	0	0
total	111	49

Result

Final score

111 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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