Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.89 – 70.42

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.8 ±9.8

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 35.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 50.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 96.68Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.1 ±12.2

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 39.44Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 21.15Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 9.83Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7918, 4828, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 4828, 1533

Auto

41.5 24%

Teleop

96.5 55%

Endgame

36.4 21%

Strengths

· 1533 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10107, 5518, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10107, 5518, 10077

Auto

18.6 26%

Teleop

39.2 55%

Endgame

13.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.9pts

Blue projected score70.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.5
Score range: 53–200
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 92.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.8Season APEX142.1

41.5Auto18.6

96.5Teleop39.2

36.4Endgame13.3

75Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	18
teleop	162	36
endgame	59	20
foul	0	0
total	264	74

Result

Final score

264 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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