Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.55 – 51.97

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±11.6

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -8.17Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 34.07Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX -5.35Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.1 ±10.5

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 6.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 24.5Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 21.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10304, 11417, 9762

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 11417, 9762

Auto

6.6 34%

Teleop

7.3 37%

Endgame

5.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10704, 3196, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

52 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10704, 3196, 7890

Auto

12.8 24%

Teleop

22.5 41%

Endgame

19.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.5pts

Blue projected score52pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.4
Score range: 4–69
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 91.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.3Season APEX284.1

6.6Auto12.8

7.3Teleop22.5

5.6Endgame19.1

117Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	28
teleop	10	73
endgame	12	28
foul	0	0
total	38	129

Result

Final score

38 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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