Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.51 – 150.01

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 67.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373 ±9.8

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 9.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 28.4Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 111.67Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.4 ±11.2

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 103.72Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 7.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 38.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11377, 1225, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11377, 1225, 2724

Auto

41.2 27%

Teleop

76.9 50%

Endgame

34.5 23%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1533, 6888, 9605

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1533, 6888, 9605

Auto

28.4 21%

Teleop

82.5 61%

Endgame

24.5 18%

Strengths

· 1533 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.5pts

Blue projected score150pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.5
Score range: 134–166
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 88.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373Season APEX238.4

41.2Auto28.4

76.9Teleop82.5

34.5Endgame24.5

75Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	33
teleop	151	53
endgame	62	37
foul	0	0
total	257	123

Result

Final score

257 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 67.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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