Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.23 – 58.54

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.1 ±11.6

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 39.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 13.45Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 21.65Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.6 ±11

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 15.03Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 40.04Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 3.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7918, 9298, 6908

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 9298, 6908

Auto

23.9 36%

Teleop

29.6 44%

Endgame

13.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3229, 2682, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3229, 2682, 9607

Auto

23.1 41%

Teleop

24.4 44%

Endgame

8.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.2pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 43–90
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 89.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.1Season APEX236.6

23.9Auto23.1

29.6Teleop24.4

13.4Endgame8.2

48Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	35	39
endgame	15	24
foul	0	0
total	74	84

Result

Final score

74 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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