Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.26 – 76.71

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±9.8

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 14.87Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 9.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 86.92Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.6 ±12.2

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 4.18Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 33.59Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 38.94Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 10077, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7763, 10077, 8727

Auto

20.2 19%

Teleop

70.4 65%

Endgame

17.6 16%

Strengths

· 8727 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10583, 9150, 10107

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10583, 9150, 10107

Auto

20.4 27%

Teleop

43.7 58%

Endgame

10.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.3pts

Blue projected score76.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.6
Score range: 61–127
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 88.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274Season APEX130.6

20.2Auto20.4

70.4Teleop43.7

17.6Endgame10.7

66Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	73	57
endgame	22	17
foul	0	5
total	113	97

Result

Final score

113 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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