Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.35 – 83.32

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±9.9

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 24.87Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 13.92Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 4.56Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.1 ±10.4

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 14.28Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 41.02Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 28.02Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 7763, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 7763, 9607

Auto

15.0 34%

Teleop

18.0 41%

Endgame

11.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10077, 7918, 1225

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 7918, 1225

Auto

11.5 13%

Teleop

58.7 68%

Endgame

15.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.4pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40
Score range: 27–99
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 89.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.8Season APEX205.1

15Auto11.5

18Teleop58.7

11.3Endgame15.8

63Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	15
teleop	12	41
endgame	9	16
foul	0	0
total	46	72

Result

Final score

46 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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